The state of hydroecological objects from regional to global scales is characterized by large series of different characteristics, the quantitative estimates of which contain significant uncertainties. The monitoring tools used cannot provide economical and informational reliable data on the state of the facilities because such data is usually received sporadically in time and fragmentarily in space. Therefore, in this project is planned to create a fundamentally new technology for monitoring of hydroecological objects of an arbitrary scale that would integrate and coordinate existing systems for collecting data on the status of the monitoring facility and optimize instrumental and financial means for creating and improving the monitoring system for the hydroecological facility.
As a result of this project, new models and information technologies will be developed to diagnose the state of the Lake Sevan ecosystem, which will create the conditions for developing solutions at the regional and state levels that will protect the unique region from undesirable changes.
The goal of the project is to develop a new constructive information technology, based on evolutionary and simulation modeling, the theory of optimal control and providing a high level of reliability in assessing the regularities of the trophic pyramid changes in the Lake Sevan ecosystem under global climate changes and regional anthropogenic impact on its elements.
An important theoretical goal of the work is the search in existing databases and knowledge of effects and regularities that could explain the conditions under which the emergence of critical transitions of the Lake Sevan ecosystem between its phase states may be possible.
The implementation of the project will include a solution of the following tasks:1. Improving the technology of geophysical information systems (GIS) and Big Data technology by giving it predictive functions through the creation of a geoecological information modeling system (GIMS) and its adaptation to the geoecological conditions of Lake Sevan.
2. Search for correlations between the biometric, geophysical and hydrophysical and economic characteristics of the Lake Sevan water system, determined in the satellite monitoring mode using optical, near infrared and microwave sensors.
3. Creation of algorithms for reconstructing the field of distribution of geophysical characteristics of the Lake Sevan water area by pixels of its spatial discretization, not available for satellite monitoring, both in time and space.
4. Definition of technical means of remote sensing for determination of quantitative estimates of hydrological flows in Lake Sevan, taking into account the regional structure of water balance in the system of pixels of the zone of influence of the Lake Sevan taking into consideration of regional structure of the water balance and synthesize of efficient monitoring regime.
Leading participant of the project Gevorkian S.A., Mkrtchyan F.A. et al. have an experience of theoretical and experimental researches in the area of development of new information technologies and mathematical modeling for the ecological monitoring of the water systems. Results of their scientific activity in these fields are published and known in Armenia and abroad.
The project provides its participants with the opportunity to conduct research work in an important and relevant area of ??peaceful scientific activity. The expected broad participation of collaborators in the project will expand and deepen the international scientific ties of the project participants and will facilitate their integration into the international scientific community. The tasks of the project are related to the development of environmental monitoring tools, which is one of the goals of the ISTC.
The estimated duration of the project is 36 months, from which: · 6 months are directed ona. Synthesis and systematization of available theoretical and experimental data on Lake Sevan.
b. Developing a database and knowledge that focuses on using interactive simulation of imitation modeling procedure.
· 18 months are directed ona. Creation of a software package with the technology of sharing models, algorithms and satellite data.
b. Synthesis of the model of the hydroelectric system of Lake Sevan, allowing predictive assessment of the state of the ecosystem, depending on global and regional changes in the environment.
c. Search for the regularities of the dynamics of the trophic pyramid of the Lake Sevan ecosystem.
d. Assessment of the response of the Lake Sevan community to external impacts.
e. Calculation of the biocompatibility of the ecosystem of Lake Sevan as a function of the characteristics of the external environment.
· 12 months are spent ona. The implementation of a series of simulation experiments to assess the state of Lake Sevan using adaptive evolutionary and technology of geoecological information modeling systems (GIMS-technologies) with a goal of calculating effectiveness indicators.
b. Compilation of the results obtained and development of recommendations on their use.
