The project aim. To determine the contribution of glacier and seasonal snow to runoff by use of Isotope Hydrology
Current status. Economic development and the political relations of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia mainly depend from the solution of questions of water division. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan located in mountains have surplus of water resources, and use them generally for the electric power development the peak of consumption is correspondent to winter. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan located in the foothills and plains use water for irrigation therefore the peak of their water consumption is corresponded to summer.
At USSR periods for the solution of water supply problem it was planned to construct system of regulating and power developing hydroelectric power stations, but the plan was not realized up to the end. Therefore, level of water security still now strongly depends from natural condition. Consequently, assessment of a contribution of glaciers in a river drain and to influence of warming of climate on degradation of a mountain glaciation very actually.
In the present project based on simultaneous monitoring of isotope structure of an atmospheric precipitation, a river drain and mountain glaciers it is offered to investigate basins of the Vakhsh, Pyanj and Zeravshan River Basin the tributaries of main Transboundary Amudarya river of the Central Asia.
Tasks of the project:
- analysis archival meteorological, hydrological, glaciological and geological information;
- investigation of isotope composition of an atmospheric precipitation at various heights (altitude of sea levels);
- monitoring of isotope composition of the rivers;
- sampling of glaciers for an assessment of gross isotope composition of ice;
- assessment of water balance of the Vakhsh, Pyanj and Zeravshan River basins for the period of supervision and it is retrospective on the basis of data GRACE systems;
- creation of conceptual, balance and dynamic models of a drain of the Vakhsh, Pyanj and Zeravshan Rivers taking into account new data;
- performance of projections of change of a drain under the influence of climatic changes on a basis numerical models of IPCC;
- formulation of the relevant proposals on management of water resources and an assessment the potential risks connected with global climate changes for operating bodies and the commercial organizations in Tajikistan and other countries of the region.
Influence of the project on progress in the field. After completion of planned researches will be created scientifically reasonable conceptual and quantitative balance-dynamic models of formation of a river drain, scenarios and recommendations for a quantitative assessment of a contribution of glaciers and a seasonal atmospheric precipitation to the general water balance of basins of the rivers.
The project participant’s competence to the specified area. Implementation of the project will be carried out at of the Republic of Tajikistan and in the glaciation area of the Vakhsh, Pyanj and Zeravshan River Basins. The employees of the project have a wide experience in researches of glaciers, monitoring of meteorological and hydrological condition of Mountain regions and in hydrochemical and isotope.
Expected Results and Their Application
- assessment of structure of water balance of basins of the Vakhsh, Pyanj and Zeravshan Rivers received on the basis of a complex archival materials, new analytical measurements and remote data;
- quantitative assessment of a ratio between a glacial and snow-rain drain;
- conceptual and quantitative balance and dynamic models of a river drain in mountain of the Republic of Tajikistan;
- present to scientific community new conceptual model of formation of a drain of the largest rivers of Pamir proved by the new obtained data;
- formulation (on the basis of quantitative balance and dynamic model of a river drain) practical recommendations about regulation of a water drain and fair water division for managing bodies of the countries of Central Asia;
- forecast of change of a drain as a result of the climate changes estimated on the basis the regional numerical models recommended by IPCC;
- provided the corresponding quantitative estimates for planning of future activity in areas of management of water resources and assessment of risks.
Meeting ISTC Goals and Objectives
The planned to realization main tasks of the project such as the analysis of primary and archival information, development of mathematical methods of a quantitative assessment of a superficial drain have exclusively peace
orientation and are focused on the solution of problems of environmental protection and economic security of the
population.
The present project correspond to following purposes and tasks of ISTC such as:
• Gives to weapon scientists opportunities for reorientation of the abilities to peace activity.
• Problems of an assessment of conditions of formation of a superficial drain and the risks connected with its wrong assessment represent essential scientific interest for not only Tajikistan and Central Asia countries but also for the world scientific community, public institutions and the commercial organizations operating in, the regions characterized by similar environmental problems. The proof of it is a significant amount of publications in scientific magazines and materials of the international scientific conferences devoted to the matter.
• Developed during implementation of the project methods of an assessment, decrease and/or compensation of technological and natural hazards will allow to develop optimum, reasonable, from the point of view of market economy, approaches to tactics of actions on decrease or elimination of consequences of global climate changes.
• Promotes the solution of national and international legal problems.
Volume of work:
- analysis archival meteorological, hydrological, glaciological and geological information;
- investigation of isotope composition of an atmospheric precipitation at various heights (altitude of sea levels);
- monitoring of isotope composition of the rivers;
- sampling of glaciers for an assessment of gross isotope composition of ice;
- assessment of water balance of the Vakhsh, Pyanj and Zeravshan River basins for the period of supervision and it is retrospective based on data GRACE systems;
- creation of conceptual, balance and dynamic models of a drain of the Vakhsh, Pyanj and Zeravshan Rivers taking into account new data;
- performance of projections of change of a drain under the influence of climatic changes on a basis numerical models of IPCC;
- formulation of the relevant proposals on management of water resources and an assessment the potential risks connected with global climate changes for operating bodies and the commercial organizations in Tajikistan and other countries of the region.
Role of Foreign Collaborators/Partners
Collaborator will represent available data on a project theme, to make comments on annual reports, to give the right to use available models for description of hydrological, meteorological processes. Also to promote the organization and carrying out of training of the personnel of TNU, to assist participants of the project in visiting of the international meetings and also in the organization and carrying out of joint symposiums and working seminars.
Technical approach and methodology
The methodology of the project bases on close coordination of theoretical and experimental works, mathematical modeling and use of standard recommendations for mountain territories water balance assessment. The modern devices and techniques for analytical measurements and "blind" control of tests will be used. The methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics will be applied to interpretation of results of measurements and for modeling original and commercial computer programs will be used.
