Earthquakes remain to be the largest natural cataclysms resulting to mass death of people and large infrastructure destructions. According to statistics, there are 20 strongest earthquakes with a magnitude M>7, 100-120 potentially dangerous ones with M>5 and 300 thousands small earthquakes per year. Therefore, it is actually need to find the reliable earthquake precursors. The precursors of the earthquake may be various physical phenomena observed several hours or days before the shock. Such precursors include the phenomena that will solve three forecast problems: determining the place, force and time of the seismic event.
The Main Goals of the Project are:
a) Carrying out systematic ground-based observations of accessible low-orbit satellites;
b) Data processing and determination the motion characteristics;
c) Calculation the deceleration coefficient of satellites before and after strong earthquakes using both observational and available data;
d) Examination a correlation between them; a possible reliable precursor for forecasting of strong earthquakes will be obtained by this way;
e) Present the results at the international conferences, publish them as papers and supply to experts employed in linked area.
The project’ influence on progress in this area. Using features of motion of spacecraft as one of possible earthquake precursors can complement existing methods of the forecasting by ground-based observations. New relationship between geophysical processes and space objects which will be set up within the proposed investigation, as well as studying their properties will stipulate the best understanding of their nature and a new insight into a problems of seismic threats.
Scope of Activities. For the achievement of the project goals the following activities will be implemented:
- observations of accessible low-orbit satellites;
- data reduction;
- determination of motion features and calculation of drag coefficient;
- collection data on known earthquakes in the Central Asia region;
- analyzing of results and finding a sign of upcoming earthquake by the satellites deceleration;
- publication of results as papers and their presentation in the international scientific conferences.
The Institute of Astrophysics of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan is responsible for all planned works of the proposed project.
Technical Approach and Methodology
The project can be accomplished by the participants by a) observations of low-orbit satellites by telescopes accessible in Tajikistan area; b) astrometric reduction of the obtained observational data aimed to determination of the dynamical properties of motion for observed objects; c) calculation of drag coefficient using the developed model of the satellites motion; d) matching up obtained data to those of known and possible upcoming earthquakes. The observational equipments and software are available for the proposed investigation as well the participants have experience of their use.
