Current status. Seismic hazard assessment for Central Asia was conducted in the past at a small scales (1:5000000 - 1:1000000) and averaging of earthquake parameters resulted in the loss of regional particularities of seismic events. In Tajikistan, the current Map of General Seismic Zoning was made in 1978, and has never been "off the mark" with regard to the measured seismic effects within the territory of Tajikistan. However, other facts give rise to serious concern about the applicability of such map: actually, this map provides predictions mainly aimed at ensuring safety of buildings and structures with respect to the impact of seismic ground shaking. The World’s experience indicates that most losses of human lives and considerable material damages in the mountain regions are associated with effects of secondary earthquake consequences: landslides, rockslides, debris flows and soil liquefaction. Dramatic examples, when people lost their lives not directly due to the seismic shaking, but mainly as a result of landslides, rockslides or debris flows, are given by such earthquakes in Tajikistan as Karatag in 1907 (M=7.4), Sarez in 1911 (M=7.4), Faizabad in 1930 (M=6.4) and in 1943 (M=6.7), Khait in 1949 (M=7.4), Hissar in 1989 (M=5.5) The importance of the topic is further highlighted by the most recent catastrophic event in May 12, 2008, the Wenchuan earthquake in China (M=7.8), which damaged 1803 dams and reservoirs, and triggered tens of thousands of landslides over an area of many thousands of square kilometers, killing thousands of people.

The existing seismic hazard maps in terms of intensity of shaking in MSK64 scale don’t take into account such consequences though above examples indicate the importance of such analysis. Most accurate results of the seismic impact assessment provides the probabilistic seismic hazard approach (PSHA) with using up-to-date ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) to estimate the spectral accelerations with given exceedance probability of calculated values. For the landslides the dynamic seismic loads can be estimated more accurately when the first resonance frequency of the massive of the loose deposits on the slope is taken into account. PSHA allows us to compute accelerations at a given spectral frequency that equal to the resonance frequency of the massive of the loose deposits on the slope like most unstable its part.

The project’s influence on progress in this area. The project methodology and techniques of estimation the earthquake induced landslides for mountainous areas will be based on the up-to-date GIS database compilation and analysis, modern seismic hazard and landslide hazard estimation technique that will be worked out during the Project implementation and allows us to provide more accurate assessment of real seismic impact for population and property.

The participants’ expertise. The scientists involved in this project have many years of considerable experience to work in seismically active mountainous areas where they did not only study seismicity, but also other natural hazards especially landslides, rock falls and debris flows, including earthquake triggered events. They took part in some international projects (CASRI, TIPAGE, GEM, TIPTIMON and others). Some information is available on the Internet web-site http://www.ingeos.tj.

Expected results and their application. The final output of this project will be a new verified methodology and approach of multi-hazard analysis, which is applicable in seismically active mountainous regions and allows a more accurate estimation of combined seismic and landslide hazard for areas, which have a high risk for property and population. The results of such an assessment for the seismically active mountainous country in Central Asia will improve the safety of the population and contribute to the sustainable development of the economy. In addition, the created GIS database will provide manifold information on those areas that are most at risk for seismic and landslides hazards allowing the profound selection of areas and which would require more detailed analyses and monitoring because of the high risk affecting important industrial and social infrastructure. The GIS database as well the final results will be accessible through the Institute’s web-site – www.ingeos.tj.

Scope of activities. The following activities will be implemented in the frame of the Project: