Modern science connects the rise of strong earthquakes with the tectonics of Lithospheric plates of the Earth – ?95% of the earthquakes (Kasahara, Le Puchon, Rikitake, Richter, Bolt, Roberts, Eiby, Gallant, Anderson, D’Amico and others). The overhelming majority of the earthquakes are groupped in narrow areas, the seismic and tectonic activities in which are conditioned by the interaction to each other of the Lithospheric plates. Two basic types of modern tectonic movements are allocated connected with the earthquake: slow (secular) and rapid (jump-wise). The secular movements (may long decades) are quasistatic, as a result of which in the Lithospheric plates and in its separate parts deformations are accumulated and at reaching the critical sign of order 10-4 bring to global fracture and the basic part of the accumulated over the years of the huge potential energy is allocated in the form of volume elastic longitudinal (primary) P and shear (transversal, secondary) S waves, which are spread with the velocity Vp and Vs, as well as Rayleigh and Love surface waves. Using the difference of velocities values of Vp and Vs waves, by the data of three seismostations on the arrival time of P and S waves the epicenter of the earthquakes is determined exactly enough, dozens of seismic stations are busy with it, fixing the phenomenon – earthquake already taken place. Rapid (jump-wise) movements (Foreshocks, Earthquakes, Aftershocks) are dynamic and for their investigation it is necessary to apply dynamic equations of elasticity theory. It is obvious that without determining the stress-strain state of Lithospheric plates and the separate blocks of the Earth crust and monitoring of their change in time, it is difficult to predict the place and time of the earthquakes rise.
The represented project permits us to solve this problem by the data of seismic stations, satellite GPS systems, inclinometers and other measuring means about the values of the displacement vector components points of the facial surface of the Lithospheric plates and blocks of the Earth crust. By the scientific head of the project it is mathematically proved, that on the base of the existing really layered structure of Lithospheric plates and blocks of the Earth crust (there is a wide geological and geographical information) and above mentioned data on displacements, it is possible to find the solutions of 3D quasistatic and dynamic problems of elasticity theory, modelizing the behavior of the Lithospheric plates and blocks of the Earth crust and conduct a monitoring of change of stress-strain states in time. The found analytical solution becomes mathematically exact for a layered packet, if the displacements of the facial surface points of the packet are polynomials from the coordinates and the layers have a constant power (thicknesses). Basing of a general analytical solution will be created powerful computing computer programs, providing the conduction of multiplane analysis and permitting to follow the change of the stress-strain state in time, according the data of the regularly conducted measurements of the points displacements of the layered packet facial surface (particularly at discovering the strengthening the seismic hazard), to estimate the dynamics of its change, reveal critical states and places of their manifestation, to estimate the accumulated energy of deformation and coupled with the data of the earthquakes harbingers to predict the place and expecting time of the earthquake rise.
The computing programs will be universal and typical, for each country, situated in the seismodangerous zone, only the parameters of the locality change: the geological construction of the corresponding section of the Earth crust (the power of the layers), the characteristics of the layers (Young and shear modules, Poisson coefficient, density, coefficient of heat conductivity). These programs may be transmitted to the corresponding countries for free or on a commercial base.
The computing program, created in the framework of the project may be used locally, as well, for example, for the seismological monitoring of the foundations and bases states of the most important constructions (nuclear power stations, dambs and others).
Summing up, if may be stated that the project can essentially advance theoretical and applied investigations on prehistory and prediction of earthquakes. It will give a new way for seismological stations not only to fix the phenomenon – earthquake, already taken place, but to trace in time the whole process of preparation and rise of the earthquakes.
