One of the global ecological issues of the modern world is the pollution of the environment with radioactive substances resulted from operation of nuclear fuel cycle facilities, emergency and accidents at nuclear industry enterprises (accidents at Chernobyl NPP, Fukushima NPP, etc.), as well as from nuclear weapon testing. Importance of contaminated territories rehabilitation and their involvement to economic cycle is increasing due to limitation of natural resources, population growth and increasing requirements to the products quality.
However, development of national economies, primarily, in agriculture depends on climatic conditions. As a result, there is a vulnerability to the climate and its extreme events especially in conditions of global warming that is observed over the last decades. The findings of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are not encouraging: negative results of the warming will be felt almost everywhere. If the climate change will positively affect the agricultural crop in North Europe due to melting of permafrost larger areas and Alps glaciers, so in South Europe the global warming may cause to extended droughts already in 21st century. The situation is much worse in Asia. High temperatures, droughts, flooding and soil erosion will be a cause of irretrievable damage of agriculture in many Asian countries.
In this regard and considering significant social impacts, the issues of decision-making support systems on scientific-based and effective management of ecological situation in conditions of economic (agricultural and industrial) activities are of the utmost importance.
In this case, study the possibility of economic activity in conditions of arid climate, arid zones is of great interest. The excellent example of such region is the territory of the former Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS).
The scientific basis of this paper is to study regularity of radionuclides migration, its distribution in system “soil-plant-animals-human” in conditions of arid climate. This makes the need for scientific development and practical realization of methods and ways providing the assessment of soil and vegetation cover radioactive contamination effects on residents living in conditions of arid climate.
The main tool for effective management of socially-economic development of regions is decision-making support system (DMSS) the functions of which include: preparation of decisions in conditions of information lack; providing of information in convenient and proper view and solution of wide range of tasks on analysis, modeling and forecasting of regional development. DMSS will allow assessing the efficiency of decisions made, managing politics options and calculating resources required for achievement of the task assigned.
The project is aimed at development of integrated approach to radioecological studies under economic activity at the arid areas. Implementation of the project will make possible to create information-analytical DMSS designed to increase the efficiency and operability of making managerial decisions on rational use of land resources and ensuring safe economic activity at technogenic contaminated territories or in affected zones of radiation hazardous objects.
The purpose of Project.The purpose of the projects is the development of complex approach to radioecological studies in economic activity at arid areas (at the example of Semipalatinsk Test Site).
DMSS developed in the course of project implementation that includes methodology, methods, software can be adapted for other territories exposed to technogenic contamination. Thus, it is possible to emphasize two target project goals, one is related to radionuclide migration on arid zone, and the other is aimed to elaborate approaches to creation of DMSS on use of technogenic contaminated territories.
The main idea of the Project is combination of experimental studies, mathematical modeling and up-to-date information computer technologies within the unique methodology that will allow covering all aspects of systematic problem associated with assessment and forecasting of effects impact on residents at technogenic contaminated territories.The main expected results:
1. methodological approaches to assessment of radioecological situation at STS territory and substantiation of events on rehabilitation of radioactive contaminated areas at this territory;
2. combination of methods and models for calculation of radiation dose and risks for population and biota, as well as for development and optimization of rehabilitation measures system.
3. Information-analytical system for decision support on use of the former Semipalatinsk Test Site, including:- database containing information required for integrated assessment of the territory condition;
- GIS- system that allows analyzing up-to-date radioecological situation at STS as regards to radiation factor impact on population and biota;
- calculation module conjugated with GIS system for identification and visual presentation of zones hazardous for economic activities realization;
- calculation module for optimization of rehabilitation measures based on radioecological and economic efficiency.
