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Seismological System for Earthquake Prediction


An Automated Regional Seismological Observation System for Short-Term Prediction of Earthquakes

Tech Area / Field

  • ENV-SEM/Seismic Monitoring/Environment

3 Approved without Funding

Дата регистрации

Ведущий институт
NII "Vector", Russia, St Petersburg

Поддержка институтов

  • Khlopin Radium Institute, Russia, St Petersburg

Краткое описание проекта

The major purpose of the project is the maintenance of safety of the people living in highly seismic regions achievable by creating an effective system for the short-term prediction about coming earthquakes.

The vital necessity of work in this direction is explained by the fact that any of known existing systems of seismological observation cannot automatically identify short-term precursors at the moment of their occurrence on the background of a noise conditions, and consequently cannot be used for the short-term prediction and acceptance of the adequate administrative decisions.

The decision of this problem is possible for each region with potential seismic dangers, at area about 1 million square kilometres, by creation any observation system. This system discovers and determines co-ordinates of each appearance of each short-term precursor at the moment of their origin. This entire take place at real noise conditions.

Within the framework of the project it is proposed to investigate the expediency of use in the system of the following known short-term precursors:

1. Pulsed electromagnetic radiation.
2. Magnetic anomalies.
3. Anomalies of tellurical currents.
4. Abnormal change of abyssal electrical resistance.
5. Anomalies of electrostatic potential of atmosphere.
6. Anomalies of electronic concentration in ionosphere.
7. Abnormal luminescence.
8. Abnormal outflow of helium.
9. Abnormal outflow of radon.
10. Abnormal outflow of methane.
11. Anomalies of seismic activity.
12. Anomalies of speeds of seismic waves.
13. Acoustic outflow.
14. Deformation of Earth crust.
15. Hydrogeodynamical anomalies.

It is supposed to create a unique complex methodical program and hardware for detection of precursors during their occurrence and definition of coordinates of a place of their occurrence. It will allow to predict time and place before earthquakes begin. The accuracy of determination of the time of approaching disaster and geographical coordinates of epicentrum is greater as closer is the earthquake. The most convincing and exact date having a practical-value will be formed in an interval from one -two weeks up to several hours and minutes before the earthquakes.

A basis for achievement of the proposed purpose is kept by the participants of the project in the experience in the fields of development of programs and hardware for accurate measurements of perse parameters for conditions with interference existence.

Besides humane importance, the project has highly commercial values. The reception of the duly authentic information about time and place of earthquakes will help to lower the subsequent expenses not only for governmental budget means, but also for means of insurance funds, commercial and other organizations, citizens on compensation of damages, restoration of ability to life and business.

Participation of foreign collaborators is very important, as this will allow making the project oriented at a specific seismic region, which in turn would provide a speedier achievement of the final goals of the project.