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Solar Activity and Climate Change

#KR-1894


Solar Activity and Its Influence on Ocean Surface and Surface Atmosphere Temperature as Factors of Climate Changes in Deeply Continental Regions of Central Asia

Tech Area / Field

  • ENV-MRA/Modelling and Risk Assessment/Environment
  • ENV-OTH/Other/Environment
  • OBS-NAT/Natural Resources and Earth Sciences/Other Basic Sciences

Статус
3 Approved without Funding

Дата регистрации
09.09.2010

Ведущий институт
Institute of Physics, Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek

Соавторы

  • Georgia Institute of Technology / School of Civil and Environmental Engineering / Multimedia Environmental Simulations Laboratory, USA, GA, Atlanta\nUniversity of Toronto / Physical & Environmental Sciences, Canada, ON, Toronto

Краткое описание проекта

Project goal:
  1. Subject of the research is long-period variations for 11 to 100 years of:
    • solar radiation;
    • atlantic ocean surface temperature variations;
    • zonal air transference;
    • surface atmosphere temperature above deeply continental regions of Central Asia (CA).
  2. Goal of the researches. Revealing of the main factors responsible for long-period variations of the surface atmosphere temperature condition both above adjacent to the ocean continents and deeply continental regions of Central Asia.
  3. Working hypothesis. Dominating influence of full solar radiation (relative to man-caused factors) long-period variations on thermal conditions of lower atmosphere.
  4. Tasks of researches: During the project implementation the following problems will be consequently solved:
    • Physico-statistical analysis of solar radiation parameter series F10,7 with preliminary filtered high-frequency components having periods up to 3 years. Fourier-analysis of smoothed temporal series of solar activity with selection of components from them having periods over 11 years.
    • To conduct physico-statistical analysis of temperature and wind temporal series at a level of surface atmosphere as well as at levels from 5 to 30 km, according to data of aerological sounding; filtering of all considered data with periods under 11 years. To realize Fourier analysis of smoothed and filtered data with selection of harmonics amplitudes in Celsius degrees and of a phase in years, to which the respective harmonic maximum amplitude refers. To calculate and to analyze variations of a full and labile lower atmosphere energy in periods of solar activity secular component maximum.
    • To analyze available literature data of long-period variations of the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans surface temperatures, to compare them and then to make a correlation analysis with long-period variations of solar activity.
    • To estimate a degree of the solar activity long-period variations correlation with the oceans surface temperature and following transformation of this correlation on long-period variations of surface atmosphere in deeply continental regions of Central Asia.
    • Taking into account the above-stated data to model long-period temperature variations in lower atmosphere, including surface layer in Central Asian region.
The obtained results will be used by presidential government, Ministry of Emergency Situations, Forestry and Ecology Agency, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Health and will be presented to attention of government authorities.

State of problem in the field of researches. At present the detailed representation of development investigations in the field of climate change is stated in the generalizing report of the IPCC (WMO, UNEP) on climate change «Climate changes, 2007». In the report observable changes of global average temperature from 1850 up to 2005 are presented, its deviations from average means are in limits ±0,50С. According to this data for last 100 years there was a warming on 0,60С that makes 4 % from average mean.

According to our data in Kyrgyzstan over the last 5 years in surface atmosphere it is not observed temperature growth in variations as in mid-annual and especially average values for cold half-year.

In IPCC report includes the observable changes of average level of the sea and the area of a snow cover in Northern Hemisphere also are presented. For last 100 years reduction of a snow cover is approximately 7 %. The size and the area of a snow cover are defined by height of a zero isotherm in atmosphere. According to our data over the last 5 years the zero isotherm in mountain regions of Kyrgyzstan has fallen from height of 4300 m to 3600 m. Apparently, the percent of warming and reduction of a snow cover seems to be statisticall not significant.

The IPCC report gives the basic tendencies of global climate change till 2000. Unfortunately, in that study, the processes occurring after 2000 in the continental regions of the Central Asia were not analyzed. Our proposal, in which data collection efforts for this purpose are emphasized, will provide this information. In our opinion, the reasons of climate change can be best revealed in a most comprehensible manner through a model that considers the interaction between “sun-atmosphere-ocean” as a system behavior.

It is necessary to notice that in the spring 2010 the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has announced that the Interacademy Council (IAC) is requested by the United Nations to undertake an independent review of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IAC is requested to conduct an independent review of the IPCC process and the procedures by which it prepares its assessment of climate change. IAC is asked to establish a panel of experts from relevant fields to conduct the review and to present recommendations on possible revisions of IPCC procedures and measures and actions to strengthen the IPCC capacity to respond to future challenges and ensure the ongoing quality of its reports.

The candidature of Prof. K. A. Karimov, the scientific leader of the given project, has been recommended as expert for IAP Review Panel by National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic.

Influence of the offered project on progress in the research field. In case of acknowledgement of results of our project other point of view on dynamics and the reasons of warming process in atmosphere will be formulated. Thus given process in region CA will be defined by prevailing influence of two factors – anthropogenous and natural on which references in IPCC report become. Primary influence of one of these factors will influence and change forecasts of economical and social development of regions.

The competence of participants of the project in the specified area. The employees who are taking part in the project, have a wide experience in research of atmospheric dynamics, its interrelation with heliogeophysical activity parameters, regional climate change, using modern mathematical apparatus of processing experimental data. Level of researches spent by them proves to be true their participation with reports in the international conferences and seminars, the publication of scientific results in reviewed magazines.

Expected results and their application. As a result of project implementation the scenario of regional climate change in which the basic dominating factors defining these changes, are long-term variations of solar activity with the periods more than 11 years and ocean influence will be developed. It will allow to explain the reasons of regional climate changes in deep-continental areas and to give the specified forecast for the next decades. Necessity of revision of the approach to causes and effects of change of a regional climate will be proved and shown. In this connection the recommendations on estimation of a policy and work procedure on climatic changes will be made. That will allow to exclude the one-sided approach to a problem of studying of the reasons of climate change. Results of researches variations of the solar and atmospheric parameters and ocean data will be united in a database and used for development and perfection of climatic models.

Conformity of the project to purposes of ISTC. The project corresponds to the purposes and tasks of ISTC as the scientists earlier working in the field of working out of weapons of mass destruction are involved in its implementation that promotes their reorientation to peace activity - research of a problem of climate change in the Central Asia region and to involving in the world scientific community by participation in the international conferences and seminars and representations of reports on subjects of the project, scientific contacts with collaborator of the project.

Scope of activities. The activities scope in the project assumes processing of considerable volume of the experimental data including heliogeophysical parameters, meteorological and climatic parameters of atmosphere and ocean. It is planned to carry out calculations, empirical modeling, the analysis and interpretation of the received results:

  1. Processing and the analysis of parameters of solar activity for last 100 years.
  2. The analysis of large-scale changes of middle zonal western transfer in the lower atmosphere of middle latitudes for separate seasons of year, cold half-year and interannual variations of mid-annual values.
  3. Processing and the analysis of climatic variations of surface temperature of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The analysis of dynamics of an oceanic current Gulf Stream and the phenomena El/La-Niño.
  4. The detailed analysis of variations of surface temperature in atmosphere over Kyrgyzstan at middle- and high mountains levels (up to 3500 m).
  5. Modeling of large-scale long and term changes of temperature in the lower and surface atmosphere in Central Asia region for the periods from 10 till 20 years.

Roles of foreign collaborators. Dr. Mustafa Aral (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA) has expressed desire to be as collaborator of the given project. Dr. Mustafa Aral is the highly professional expert in problems of modeling of global and regional climate change. The exchange of the primary information, an exchange of techniques of data processing, their reliability, and also participation in process of implementation of the plan of works is supposed. Joint processing of an experimental material by different techniques and cross check of results is supposed. Carrying out of joint scientific and technical conferences and seminars and participation of executors of the project the international symposiums and meetings is planned.

Technical approaches and methodology. For achievement of the purposes and solving project tasks the modern scientific methods of data processing (the wavelet-analysis, method of maximum entropy, coherent and phase analyses, etc.) of experimental material on solar activity, superficial temperature of ocean, average zonal atmosphere stream, climatic parameters and modeling calculations of air masses from east coast of Atlantic ocean to deep continental regions of the Central Asia will be used. Modeling of processes will be carrying out on the basis use of system of the hydrodynamic equations and modern mathematical methods. Reliability of results of empirical modeling will be estimated by level of coincidence of actual changes of temperature with modeling calculations.


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