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Monitoring of Natural Disasters Geodynamics

#A-621


A Complex System ("KIANK") of Estimation of the State of Natural Disasters Geodynamics

Tech Area / Field

  • ENV-MIN/Monitoring and Instrumentation/Environment

Status
3 Approved without Funding

Registration date
30.10.2000

Leading Institute
Yerevan State University, Armenia, Yerevan

Supporting institutes

  • Garni Geophysical Observatory, Armenia, Garni

Collaborators

  • University of Reading, UK, Reading\nEngineer Research and Development Center, USA, MS, Vicksburg\nRensselaer Polytechnic Institute, USA, NY, Troy\nTechnical University of Berlin / Institute of Geography, Germany, Berlin\nUniversity of Electro-Communications / Departament of Applied Physics and Chemistry, Japan, Tokyo\nEarthquake Prognostics International Center, Germany, Berlin\nBrown University / Departament of geological Sciences, USA, RI, Providence

Project summary

In recent decades the number of emergencies caused by nature has tended to grow worldwide. Mankind’s efforts are directed mainly at minimizing the destructive consequences of natural disasters. It is obvious that successful solution of these arduous, socio-economic and scientific-technical problems is closely related to the possibility of developing reliable methods for forecasting natural disasters.

One of the major problems in the investigation of the geodynamics processes, which lead to natural disasters, is the development of correct research methodology. Today, a strategy of complex forecast studies is proposed, using worldwide experience in the field. It comprises geophysical, geochemical, hydro-dynamic studies, investigations of the regional structures of natural disaster sources, the migration of their activity sources, seismic hazard mapping (in the case of earthquakes), analysis of natural disaster precursors and a large number of parameters, which could carry information on characteristics of triggering phenomena. However, the number of parameters is so immense, that the quantitative evaluation of occurrence probability, for instance, of an earthquake (comprising the time and the region of the planet it will take place, and the magnitude assessment), based on the analysis of the variation of these parameters, is rather difficult and still remains an unsolved problem. Hence, to raise the level of popular preparedness for emergencies, the elaboration of complex methodology for estimation of the status and geodynamics of the evolution of natural disaster sources, based on qualitative analysis of a restricted number of the most important geodynamic characteristics, is a crucial issue.

Furthermore, particular attention must be drawn to insuring the high accuracy of measurement of these parameters, which is apparently possible with the proper equipment and experience in radiation, opto-physical, seismological, geophysical, geochemical and other investigations.

A joint team of researchers and specialists from the Yerevan State University (YSU), Garni Geophysical Observatory of the National Academy of Science of the Republic of Armenia (GGO NAS RA), proposes the research Project, to develop a complex system for evaluation of the state of natural disaster geodynamics.

The aims of the Project are:

1. Development of new, highly sensitive sensors (liquid crystal sensor "LCS") and other opto-electronic instruments for registration of geodynamic processes and creation of the natural disasters monitoring network (“KIANK”) on the base polygon of Garni (R=50km), Armenia.


2. Monitoring of geodynamic processes by geophysical, geochemical, hydro-meteorological and other methods via Complex automated registration.
3. Development of effective methods for differentiation of seismically active and passive geological faults.
4. Elaboration of theoretical concepts on the nature of geodynamic processes; creation of computer software for geodynamic data processing and establishment of methodology to estimate the state of natural disaster geodynamics.
5. Development of the basic scheme of the automated geoinformation system (GIS) of data on geodynamic processes in the investigated region, providing the possibility to cooperate with and become integrated into the international Early Warning communication System (EWS) on natural disasters; development of a working GIS model based on the polygon (Garni-Yerevan-Armenian Nuclear power plan (NPP), Scale 1:50 000) database.

As a result of Project realization the following is expected:


– development of a new system for opto-electronic measurements, including a highly sensitive liquid crystal sensor to register seismic vibrations. The ultimate sensitivity of the new system exceeds existing counterparts by two to three orders;
– development of an experimental polygon, based on the "KIANK" monitoring system for assessment of natural disaster geodynamics;
– development of a set of algorithms and software for the database of geodynamic processes;
– determination of a set of the most effective and reliable characteristics for assessment of the state of natural disaster sources;
– elaboration of methodology to estimate the state and geodynamics of natural disaster sources;
– assessment of the hazard level for adequate decision-making, to enhance the preparedness of NPP and other major engineering structures to emergencies in case of nature-caused emergencies within the polygon territory (R=50km);
– development of a principal scheme of the automated geoinformation system (GIS) on the basis of investigations of data on regional geodynamic processes;
– development of the polygon (Garni-Yerevan-Armenian NPP, Scale 1:50 000) geo-ecological working GIS model.

The "KIANK" system will be crucial in reducing and mitigating the impact of natural disasters by recommending the use of its advanced technological know-how.


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