Monitoring and Patterns of Dangerous Landslides Activity
Development of New Monitoring Methods of Typical Landslides in Mountain Regions Similar with Kyrgyz Republic, Establishing and Verification of Computer Models to Forecast Landslide Activation
Tech Area / Field
- ENV-EHS/Environmental Health and Safety/Environment
- ENV-MIN/Monitoring and Instrumentation/Environment
- ENV-MRA/Modelling and Risk Assessment/Environment
3 Approved without Funding
Department of Emergencies Monitoring and Forecasting and Mining Tailings Management / Geographical Informational System Laboratory, Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek
- GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Germany, Potsdam\nLawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA, CA, Livermore
Project summaryThe main objective of project is an establishing of computer software of landslides types based on relevant monitoring system and database.
The project is focused on problem solving to protect population from this natural disaster and infrastructure of landslide activation.
The main points of project:
- development of required resources of typical landslides features for further design of relevant computer software;
- design of dynamic computer software
- inpidual adaptation of computer software required for the forecast of landslide activation consequences;
- conduct of practical workshop.
Actuality of project is concerned with necessity to protect population and infrastructure of landslide activation consequences where dynamics forecast is the most important aspect.
There are over 5000 landslides in volume from hundred to million cubic meters of soil covering dozens or thousands meters in republic. The structure of soil varies from loess to semi rocky types. The location area of landslides is a whole territory of republic. The total square of soil exposed to landslide processes following to burial and destruction of houses and infrastructure occupies 7,5% of territory. For the period of 1968-2005 the 207 persons including women and kids were dead as a consequence of landslides that equal to 80% death roll statistics of 20 kinds of dangerous natural disasters on the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic.
Landslide activity is defines with many factors as weather conditions, underground water level, seismic activity, human economic activities etc. The specialists qualified in different areas should be involved in monitoring of all relevant factors. A mixed information and data accumulated in different organizational structures affects on quality of landslides activity forecast and its efficiency. To use information on landslides activity it’s necessary to have a unified monitoring system of landslides adapted to environment of the Kyrgyz Republic.
Taking into account that viewed region is a natural “landslide laboratory” the participants of project are proposed to develop the monitoring system of basic indicators assigning possible landslide activity adapted to computer software to forecast the landslide activity consequences.
The project based on a long-term experience (1970-2006) of project participants related to research of landslides and geological features in region (as per enclosure) as well as experience of scientists and specialists involved in rocket technologies development.
There is no similar system design including functional capabilities in Central Asia region. It provides effective and urgent landslides activity forecast, modeling of its activity and ability to implement more efficient safety activities.
The scientists and specialists involved in project implementation will be able to redirect their experience in weapon development and uranium search due to integration with international learned society focusing on encourage of regional and international problem solving to research landslides process and protect population from this natural disaster. Above aspects are in line with the main aims and activities of ISTC accordingly.
To achieve Project objectives it proposed to solve the following tasks:
- establishing the database of existing and forming landslides;
- definition a range of forming landslides with typical indicators in region;
- development of monitoring system with indicators;
- development of computer software to design landslides processes;
- conduct a workshop on project results.
Main project outcomes:
- landslides database in Kyrgyz Republic;
- unified monitoring system;
- computer models of landslides forming;
- manual of computer models use and its forecast;
- final report;
- preparation of conditions to implement project results.
The project results will allow to:
- expand a range of facilities and possibilities to forecast disastrous effects of landslides activity;
- enhance safety work of different organizations involved in activities in landslide dangerous regions;
- improve level of landslide research.
The project results will be used for:
- upgrade activities of landslide research and relevant processes;
- commercial capacity enhancing of business relations among all stakeholders involved in relevant activities;
- extension of works to improve irrigation equipment and technologies;
- enlargement of training and practical base for students of geological faculties as well as scientific and productive base for scientists.
Potential contribution of foreign collaborators while project implementation:
- information exchange;
- participation in methods design;
- participation in technical control of project activities;
- conduct of jointed workshops;
- provide a technical assistance to solve some project tasks.
During the period of database establishing and development of system and forecast models it proposed to carry out the following monitoring of:
- physical and geometric indicators of landslides;
- weather conditions;
- level of subsoil waters;
- texture and solidity of soil;
- topography of landslide location;
- computer models;
- developed system.
The methods and recommendations to conduct laboratory and field researches will be used for monitoring of project activities as well as original methods and equipment developed for project. Computer software, design of relevant models and forecast drafts will be made on the latest computer base and relevant equipment.
As per project results it proposed to publish some scientific and technical articles.
- Kh.V. Ibatulin. Landslides of Kirgizia, types, forming conditions and control measures. Materials of scientific and technical meeting on studying and forecast of mudflows, fallings and landslides, Dushanbe, 1970, pgs.11-13.
- Kh. V. Ibatulin. Landslide mechanism in south-west part of Fergana mountain ridge. Collection “Issues of engineering geodynamics”, Tashkent, 1975, pgs. 20-23.
- K. Ch. Kozhogulov, Kh.V.Ibatulin. Assessment of declines on level of subsoil waters. Informing sheet #176(5030). KyrgyzINTI, 1992.
- K. Ch. Kozhogulov, Kh.V.Ibatulin. Regional forecast of landslides based on geologic and tectonic features. Informing sheet # 175(5030), KyrgyzINTI, 1992
- A.K. Sarnogoev, E.P. Kravchenko. Regularity of landslide in loess soils in south region of Kyrgyzstan. Magazine “Science and new technologies”, #6, part 1 (enclosure), Bishkek 2000, pgs.64-67.
- B.D. Moldobekov, Sh.E. Usupaev, A.K. Sarnogoev. Monitoring and forecasting of geologic and environmental dangerous natural process on territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Main report thesis of “Geodynamics and geologic and environmental problems of alpine regions” second International symposium. Bishkek, 2002, pg.159.
- S.Usmanov, V.Kovalenko, À.Vorobiev, I. Chunuev, Dj. Duishenaliev. Resistance evaluation of Kumtor alpine open-cast mine dumps when it filled on glaciers. Mountain magazine No.1, 2002, pgs.34-36.
- S.F. Usmanov, S.K. Buruchenko. Prediction of catastrophic landslides phenomena in Kyrgyz Republic. New lener European Geophysical Society. #74, March, 2000, pp. 288.