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Expert system of transformation of natural complexes

#K-885


Expert system of transformation of natural ecosystems and complexes in South-Balkhash region of Kazakhstan

Tech Area / Field

  • OBS-NAT/Natural Resources and Earth Sciences/Other Basic Sciences
  • ENV-MRA/Modelling and Risk Assessment/Environment
  • INF-SOF/Software/Information and Communications

Status
3 Approved without Funding

Registration date
14.05.2002

Leading Institute
Volkovgeologia Joint-Stock Association, Kazakstan, Almaty

Supporting institutes

  • "TETHYS" Public Association, Kazakstan, Almaty\nKATEP-AE, Kazakstan, Almaty\nAssociation ISOTOP , Kazakstan, Almaty

Collaborators

  • BRGM (French Geological Survey), France, ORLEANS CEDEX 2\nKyoto University / Graduate School of Agriculture / Laboratory of Soil Science, Japan, Kyoto\nUniversité de Bordeaux 1 / Geology Department, France, Talence\nKyoto University / Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies / Laboratory of Landscape Ecology and Planning, Japan, Kyoto

Project summary

The purpose of the given project are modern researches of natural complexes and ecosystems and creation of the tool of regional management new to Kazakhstan and prognosis of the conditions of ecosystems and natural complexes on the basis of elements of an artificial intellect.
The expert system, uniting the knowledge of highly skilled experts is one of the best mechanisms for disclosing and using the scientific potential for solving the specific problems and achieving the stable development of regions; it may be used by different research and managing institutions of Kazakhstan Republic.
For realization of the project purposes the region with common for Kazakhstan characteristics was chosen. The South – Balhash Region has with big economic potential and natural resources, but also has unbalanced system of water resources. The processes of aridization threaten the existence of unique natural complexes, problems of conservation of biological persity in this region in composition with heavy metals pollution and other harmful substances of soils, river arteries and reservoirs, presence of sites with the heightened radiation level and absence of the data on modern conditions of natural complexes are observed.
In Expert system of transformation of natural ecosystems and complexes in South - Balhash region of Kazakhstan the extensive database integrated with digital model of a land forms which effectively allows to use mathematical modelling of processes in ecosystems will be used with 3D display of results. The global database will contain the retrospective data accumulated by the participating organizations, and the modern data of remote sounding and results of the research activity of the experts.
The unique base of knowledge of natural complexes will allow the expert system to form prognosis of transformations of these natural complexes and regional ecosystems, and an opportunity of adding the changes by the user of expert system in the script of transformation will enable to use advantages of the spatial analysis of the data to the decision of regional problems of redistribution of water resources including the international level, to use the estimation and the prognosis of natural complexes conditions at designing the large industrial targets, to give the recommendation for land resources use and to preservation of biological persity and unique Red Book species, etc.
When choosing the right equipment and tools, the authors of the project recognized that:
- these means should not be expensive
- programs and the databases created by these tools,
should be completely open for change and
additions by experts and the qualified users if necessary. In case of
corporate systems creation the function of distribution of access levels should
be assigned to operational system or control system of the database
(for example, DBMS such as ORACLE).
- they should enable creations of the convenient and natural interface for experts and users
Therefore for maintenance of the effective spatial analysis of a global database, realization of the mechanism of inquiries, the organization of base of knowledge and storages of the additional information as constants, variable and logic references to thematic layers one of the most known and widespread in Kazakhstan software - MapInfo Professional was chosen. As to calculation and modelling programs presence of which is completely necessary in modern expert system, they will be carried out in medium of software package Mathcad 2000 Pro, that uses natural language of mathematical expressions both symbolical mathematics, and maximum open and convenient for experts in various fields of knowledge. The expert system will be Bayesian in general and at creation of expert system objective technologies will be widely applied.
The majority of participants of the project will be biologists, experts in soils and natural complexes, experts in the field of radioecology, who know modern information technologies and methods of the spatial analysis and have wide experience in realization of regional researches, worked for a long time studying components of natural complexes in Pribalkhashye. K. M. Pachikin and G. N. Jakunin during 1985-1993 carried out the researches on drawing up of the soil map of Semirechye including South Pribalkhashye ("Soil map of Semirechye”. Scale 1:500000, 1993), and also studied the soil mantle of Northern Pribalkhashye (K. M. Pachikin, G. N. Jakunin, 1998). Also the complex researches of fauna of Balkhash lake were carried out. K.Duskaev for many years studied water regime of Balkhash lake and the rivers of its basin.

In previous years in the given territory PDP OJC “Volkovgeologia” specialists carried out high-leveled research and also aerogammaspectrometer survey of lower parts and left side of the Ili river . The territory of Chu - Ili uranium ore province was also investigated, small-scale 1:1000000 aeroradioecological and lithogeochemical survey was carried out.
Experts of “ISOTOPE” association have a huge operational experience under the spatial analysis and creation of databases for regional and ecological projects, repeatedly carried out works on Semipalatinsk nuclear range and the Aral problem (for example, “The final report of INTAS project KZ-50”) and actively participate in researches of ISTC (the project K - 298). For east part of territory of the proposed project they created digital model of land forms in MapInfo format on a matrix of 30 seconds and survey vector maps with scale 1:1000000. Structures of databases on soil mantles were also developed in “ISOTOPE” association under K.M.Pachikin management and are the standard “de facto” in Kazakhstan.
Experts of KATEP-AE undoubtedly are professionals in the field of radioecology and studied southwest part of territory of the project. Besides, A.N.Baldov and A.V.Galkin are recognized experts in problems of the legislation of the environment and repeatedly participated in IAEA programs and projects of ISTC.

Thus, the expert system will be intended for use by different research and managing institutions of Kazakhstan; the prototype of regional expert system created in the project, may begin formation of the standard in the field of resource management and applied ecology for such regional systems.


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