Strategy for Region Energy System development
Methodology for creation of strategy for Region Energy System development based on Integrated Resource Planning approach. Country Study for the Republic of Belarus
Tech Area / Field
- NNE-OTH/Other/Non-Nuclear Energy
- INF-SOF/Software/Information and Communications
- INF-COM/High Performance Computing and Networking/Information and Communications
3 Approved without Funding
National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Belarus / Institute of Heat and Mass Transfer, Belarus, Minsk
- Institute of Power Engineering Problems, Belarus, Minsk, Sosny
- Universität Stuttgart / Insitut fur Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Germany, Stuttgart\nLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA, CA, Berkeley\nTellus Institute / Stockholm Environment Institute, USA, MA, Boston\nResearch Institute of Innovative Technologies for the Earth, Japan, Kyoto
Project summaryThe project objectives
The aim of given project is the development of new energy planning methodology – searching for optimal development and functioning of regional energy system - with reference to countries in transition economy and practical application of this methodology for Belarus.
Statement of work. General importance
The improvement of energy efficiency and the cutting of energy consumption gain increasing importance as long-term strategic objectives of national energy planning. The transition of the Republic of Belarus from a centrally planned to a market economy is associated with a variety of political, legal and structural changes in the energy sector as well as in the overall economy. This induces a variety of planning problems that have to be solved in the near future.
It should be emphasized that due to methodological and technical problems there is no systematical scientific approach to these tasks for Belarus until now. The main among them is the absence of a unified methodology for:
· the estimation of energy conservation potential in different branches of the national economy;
· the reliable evaluation of factors affecting the real output of energy conservation efforts, including finance, balance of payment, pricing policy, infrastructure capacity and other factors;
· the complex design of indigenous infrastructure aided by imported energy efficient technology;
· the efficiency of energy conservation incentives for a given country under its specific economic conditions;
· the consideration of environmental problems;
· the creation of a network for information exchange on energy policy optimization;
· the establishment of data base;
· the evaluation of alternative strategies - to compare options - of physical and technological types including their economic impacts.
For example, domestic energy resources in Belarus in 1990 constituted 13% of the total primary energy consumption. Development of the energy sector is mainly based of the imported fuel (natural gas, oil and coal) and at a little extent on the domestic resources (oil, peat, woods, and wood waste).
Electricity generation facilities in Belarus include very old units. Oldest of them had been produced in 1927. If this equipment is operated in accordance with the existing rules for operation, 2005-2009 will retire about 60% of it. Most of the electric power units either have exhausted their operating life (300,000 hours operating life for a turbine) or will reach it by 2005.
So the main problems in Belarus energy system are the following:
· Dependence from external (mostly Russian) energy sources (13% of energy needs are available in Belarus)
· Rather old power plants
· Energy security
· Environmental problems
Influence of the project on the decision making process.
Strategic energy planning on a national basis is meant to search more efficient way for producing and using of energy. Basically it focuses on an energy system that satisfies the following requirements:
· Reliability of energy supply,
· Increase of energy efficiency,
· Acceptability for the environment,
· Economic efficiency, and
· Social compatibility.
Energy system analysis serves to assess complex energy system, consisting of inter-related energy flows and technologies, in comprehensive and systematic way. In context of planning and decision making the energy demand-supply analysis should provide projection of future energy requirements consistent with the overall economic and social development within a given set of policy assumptions. Realization of the project gives a possibility to develop new methodology of energy planning based on analysis not only existent technologies but with due social and ecological requirements.
Realization of the project allows to switch efforts of "weapon" scientists to the decision of absolutely peaceful problems which are actual for many countries during transition to market economy.
The performance of the project, basically, will be carried out by efforts of 11 of the weapon experts, 6 by the scientists of other direction and auxiliary personnel in amount 3 men. The Scientists from HMTI are the experts in the field of development powerful laser systems, research of interaction of powerful optical radiation with substance, creation of systems for test of controlled rockets. They created software for systems of different kinds of resources distribution. The scientists from IPEP took part in creation of mobile nuclear reactor for application in conditions of Far North. Then they worked in the field of energy planning, participated in the IAEA training courses and technical cooperation project.
Main results can be summarized as following:
· User friendly software which include database on energy consumption and intensity of the different sectors of economy, characteristic of technologies and environment impact of energy use;
· Computer tools for energy planning and comparative analysis of the different alternatives of the energy policy;
· Details analysis of the energy balance of the country, energy consumption, end-use efficiency and
· least cost expansion plan of the energy sector.
During project realization some other useful results will be obtained, such as:
1. Relational database on primary energy consumption, energy chains and end-use energy intensity of the different sectors of economy will be elaborated;
2. Software applications for energy flows network construction will be developed;
3. Software will be integrated in existing models for energy planning MESAP and ENPEP;
4. Based on forecast of the economical development the country case studies on optimal energy policy will be carried out.
5. Emissions of CO2 from the energy sector will be calculated from the point of view of the taking advantage of market incentives arising from the Kyoto Protocol conditions (quotation of emissions).
The results will apply for on-line control of the energy use, development of the energy policy and evaluation of the effects for implementation of the energy saving technologies.
Expected results will have the important scientific and commercial significance. Implementation of these innovative methodologies will promote protection of environment and saving of fuel resources.
Project results application.
The received results will be used for operative management of use of energy, development of energy policy and estimation of results of energy saving technologies introduction in region. On an example of the Belarus energy system the methodology of optimal energy planning, strategic and operative management of functionality of energy system will be fulfilled. For this purpose the corporate information system developed by HMTI for concern "BELENERGO" will be used.
During performance of the project the participants will get additional experience under the economic analysis of energy systems, that will allow them to advise regional energy system of other countries at possible introduction there of developed methodology.
Meeting ISTC Goals and Objectives.
The project meets ISTC Goals and Objectives. Its realization will allow to use at least 11 scientists, earlier concerned with by developments of laser and nucleus weapon, and realize their integration in the international scientific community. Expected results will have important scientific and commercial value.
Realization of the project will meet the following ISTC goals and objectives:
· Providing project participants opportunities to redirect their talents, knowledge and skills from works related to laser and nuclear weapons to peaceful activities;
· Promoting integration of the project participants into the international scientific community through the cooperation with Stuttgart University;
· The project is directed to the applied researches in the field of rational and ecologically safe production of energy;
· Promoting the decision of the actual national problems during the transition of Belarus to the market-based economy.
Data on amount of works.
The project duration is 36 months, amount of efforts is 319 person-months.
The project activity is pided on 3 Tasks.
Task 1 "Development of the Energy Data Statistical Information System " of 15 month duration is carried out by HMTI and IPEP. It consists of 3 subtasks:
1.1. Development the structure of the Statistical Information System.
1.2. Energy data sources analysis and data inventory.
1.3. Adaptation of ENIS system to the Belarus.
Task 2 "Development of software, installation of the Energy Information System" of 18 month duration consists of 3 subtasks:
2.1. Development, programming and installation of additional ENIS functions. It is carried out by HMTI.
2.2. Collection and evaluation of the data for Energy Information System. It is carried out by HMTI and IPEP.
2.3. Installation of adapted ENIS system. It is carried out by HMTI.
Task 3 "Analitical planning researches of Belarus Energy System development" of 18 month duration is carried out by HMTI and IPEP. It consists of 4 subtasks:
3.1. Development scenarios of energy supply and consumption with taking into account social, political and environment constrains.
3.2. Evaluation of the effectiveness of implementation of energy saving technologies.
3.3. Least cost analysis of the scenario electricity generation system expansion.
3.4. Conclusions and recommendations.
Role of Foreign Collaborator
Performing of the project will be realized in the close co-operation with the Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, University of Stuttgart (IER), [Insitut fьr Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Universitдt Stuttgart]. The Institute (Director of the Institute - Professor A. Voss) will take an active participation in performing an exploratory program. Cooperation between IER and Luikov HMTI will be coordinated from Germany side by Professor A. Voss.
The participation of the Collaborator is following:
· Exchange ideas and approaches to the energy planning;
· Cross validations of results, tinned during the realization of project;
· Test and examination of energy planning methodology developed in the project;
· Organization of joint symposiums and workshops.
The technical approach and methodology
The analytical models of the analysis of power system are based on network representation of power system, beginning from natural resources and finishing their concrete use. Scientits from HMTI have a large experience in creating of user friendly software for systems of different kinds of resources distribution. The models are created with the purpose to choose among various alternatives one which would satisfy to criterion of the best decision in view of various restrictions. Information system will be created on the base of ENIS which is the section of the energy planning package MESAP purchasing in the framework of the project. In computing means developed and used for the analysis of power system, it will be taken into account both management of consumption, and requirement of energy saving policy. Participants from IPEP worked in the field of energy planning, participated in the IAEA training courses and technical cooperation project.